US Restaurants "Macro Pressures Linger, But Pockets of Resiliency" Geiger

Research evidence excerpt

US Restaurants "Macro Pressures Linger, But Pockets of Resiliency" Geiger

Global Research

25 May 2026ab

US Restaurants Equities

AmericasMacro Pressures Linger, But Pockets of Resiliency

Restaurants

Dennis Geiger, CFA

Investor discussions continue to highlight restaurant sector caution Analyst

Our investor meetings and discussions last week continued to highlight more cautious dennis.geiger@ubs.com

sentiment, with concerns around sluggish traffic & sales trends, ongoing consumer +1-212-713 9313

headwinds, and limited visibility in outlook. Investor sentiment remains more negative Paul Hao

on QSRs given greater lower income exposure, elevated gas price headwinds, and Associate Analyst

additional factors that could pressure valuations (ie GLP-1 overhang). Investors generally paul.hao@ubs.com

appear more positive on casual dining and parts of fast casual. Generalist investors +1-201-352 1091

remain more cautious (and less involved) on the restaurant sector given a still negative Nikhil Gunderia

bias on the consumer with ongoing risks and uncertainty related to gas prices. That said, Associate Analyst

investor meetings are beginning to include more questions around how to think about nikhil.gunderia@ubs.com

the restaurant sector when the conflict ends, including which brands / companies are +1-212-713 3258

best positioned for positive inflections. We note many investors remain positive on Emily Li

shares of QSR, given still strong Burger King sales trends. Additionally, following our Associate Analyst

recent note on the sustainability of Burger King US' outsized sales momentum, we emily.li@ubs.com

spoke with BK franchisees who indicated particular strength in recent months, with a +1-212-649 8262