IT Hardware & Semis (AO) | Semis market on track for +45% growth in 2026E

Research evidence excerpt

IT Hardware & Semis (AO) | Semis market on track for +45% growth in 2026E

Connecting the dots

Release date: 27 May 2026

Sébastien Sztabowicz

Head of IT Hardware & Semis Research

+33 1 53 65 35 10

ssztabowicz@keplercheuvreux.comIT Hardware & Semis

Europe

Semis market on track for +45% growth in 2026E

Key points:

Despite still uncertain macro conditions (with the ongoing war in the Middle East), most of the semis and semis equipment

vendors reported results stronger-than-expected results in Q1 and delivered stronger-than-expected guide for Q2.

The semiconductor market has been picking up materially over the past few months and is now on track to expand in the mid-40s

in 2026E (with some further upside in the coming months and showing a massive acceleration over 2025 trends, at +24%), with

room for further expansion over 2027-28E (supported by still-strong traction around AI and the acceleration of the upcycle in the

analog semiconductor market, and specifically in the automotive and industrial markets).

Despite impressive share price performances over the past few months, we keep our constructive stance on European semis, as

many semis vendors are still trading close to historical multiples 2-3 years down the road, and there is likely some further upside

to earnings, and some of them even now deserve to trade on higher multiples given stronger growth and margin prospects. We

keep ASML (Buy, TP EUR1,460), Infineon (Buy, TP EUR70), Nokia (Buy, TP EUR10.5) and Nordic Semiconductor (Buy, TP NOK230)

in our Most Preferred Stocks in the sector. Our Least Preferred Stocks remain ams OSRAM (Reduce, TP CHF10.5), Ericsson (Hold,

TP SEK105) and X-FAB (Hold, TP EUR4.3).

Semis and semis equipment vendors delivered stronger-than-expected Q1 with Q2 guide above expectations