Integrateds, Refining, and Midstream: What to do the day the Strait reopens

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Integrateds, Refining, and Midstream: What to do the day the Strait reopens

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Integrateds, Refining, and Midstream

What to do the day the Strait reopens

Price Objective Change

Paralysis and fatigue in the energy sector 25 May 2026

Even though the strait remains closed, energy investors are hesitant to add, knowing the Equity

strait could reopen soon and stocks could decline materially. It remains too early to tell United States

whether the most recent musings of a peace deal will bear fruit, but there has been Oil & Gas

significant inquiry on the playbook for the day the strait reopens. Jean Ann Salisbury

False reopens give datapoints about what might happen ResearchBofAS Analyst

There have been several false starts around reopening, usually around claims of a +1jeanann.salisbury@bofa.com646 855-1470

ceasefire or progress toward deals. On the five such dates we looked at, on average, the Conor Fitzpatrick

refining crack for 2026 fell by 4%, the oil strip fell by 3%, and TTF fell by 10%. The Research Analyst

worst stock performers on those days were US LNG (down -5.0%, esp VG down -7%), US BofAS+1 646 855 5711

Refiners (down -4.1%; PBF -6%), and integrated oil producers (down -3.9%; OXY -5%). conor.fitzpatrick@bofa.com

High restocking demand for crude and refined products, JamesResearchLarkin,AnalystCFA

The world has lost 3-4mbd of damaged Persian Gulf refined product capacity and 11mbd BofAS+1 646 855 0116

of net crude flows as the Iran War and Hormuz Strait closure reaches day 85. We assume james.r.larkin@bofa.com

that after this, SPRs of both will be fully refilled, and commercial storage will be refilled Naomi Marfatia

Research Analyst

to at least the midpoint. This suggests +1.2 billion barrels of crude restocking demand BofAS