Expert Call - State of Reinsurance/ILS Market Into Mid-Year Renewals

Research evidence excerpt

Expert Call - State of Reinsurance/ILS Market Into Mid-Year Renewals

USA | P&C Insurance/Insurtech EquityMayResearch22, 2026

Exhibit 1 - P-CAT risk-adjusted pricingExpert Call - State of Reinsurance/ILS Market

expected to be at the lower-end of down

15%-20%Into Mid-Year Renewals

Howden Mid-Year Global Risk-Adjusted P-CAT

RoL

We hosted Aeolus Capital Management Partner and President, Aditya Dutt, 400

350to discuss reinsurance/ILS market dynamics into the mid-year renewals. P-

CAT 6/1 pricing could be at the lower-end of down 15-20% while T&C are 300

mostly holding. Industry capital continues to build as expected returns remain 250200

150favorable and alternative reinsurance capital generation persists. Material shifts

in pricing trends are not expected without a ~$130bn+ capital loss event(s). 100 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026E

.

Source: Howden, Jefferies

Exhibit 2 - Total alternative reinsurance

Mid-year renewals pricing softening from 1/1. P-CAT risk-adjusted pricing is down 15%-20%+ capital has grown to ~$135bn and has been

relative to 2025 mid-year renewals (compared to 10-15% down at 1/1), with the expert citing that supported by catastrophe bonds

outcomes are skewing more towards the worst end of the range. Pricing pressure is most intense 140

in U.S. nationwide accounts while the FL market was noted as being the next most competitive. 120100

Competitive pressures in the retro market were highlighted as being relatively lower though pricing $bn 8060

is still down. Incremental demand estimates of $10bn-$15bn of limit seems reasonable, but is 40

not material enough to offset pricing pressures. The expert noted cedants are generally retaining 20

savings rather than purchasing incremental coverage.