All's Good in the Aftermarket - AAP Posts Beat, Conference Sentiment Optimistic

Research evidence excerpt

All's Good in the Aftermarket - AAP Posts Beat, Conference Sentiment Optimistic

more premium mix. Service

demand remains strong as dealers note expanding technician headcount/capacity remains a top

priority. Affordability continues to be a concern as inflation ticks higher while auto service/repair

operators noted consumer have become more informed buyers with improved access to industry

data via AI & online tools, resulting in a more price sensitive customer.

Walking the tight rope of maintaining in-stocks while elevated fuel prices & receded lubricant

supply start to impact costs. A common theme across industry members was navigating a

challenging supply/demand environment compounded by geopolitical noise, as a tire retail chain

notably pointed out "inventory is like blood" as availability across price points is essential given

consumer's economic dispersion. Lubricant availability was another hot topic as base oil supply

disruption likely worsens into summer months with some general service and oil change operators

seeing risk of shortage and price spikes while VVV conversely expects elevated costs but sees

ample supply throughout '26. Most industry operators were encouragingly in agreement that

despite recent noise, overall costs tariff environment have become fairly stable.

Aftermarket excitement continues in the week ahead with AZO (5/26) and MNRO (5/27) reports.

AZO comps (est 4.1% vs cons 4.8%) are likely supported by +MSD% pricing, while SG&A (est 33.5%) Bret Jordan, CFA * | Equity Analyst

is expected to remain elevated to support store growth ambitions. We expect MNRO comp (est (617) 342-7926 | bjordan1@jefferies.com

-1.0% vs cons +0.7%) to be challenged despite being +0.8% in Jan (Jan'25 -2.1%) by tougher comps Patrick Buckley, CFA * | Equity Associate