AHR: Adjusting estimates post 1Q26 results

Research evidence excerpt

AHR: Adjusting estimates post 1Q26 results

American Healthcare REIT, Inc.

Target/Upside/Downside Scenarios Investment summary

American Healthcare REIT (NYSE: AHR) is a diversifiedAmerican Healthcare REIT, Inc.

healthcare REIT that will likely be more keen on growing its

70 120 Weeks 06FEB24 - 22MAY26 seniors housing and skilled nursing facility (SNF) portfolios.

The company's ownership in Trilogy Health Services, LLC, 60 TARGETTARGET 56.0056.00

50 CURRENTCURRENT 50.1950.19 within a RIDEA structure is the biggest differentiating

factor. We believe this relationship reflects a competitive

40 advantage in the space, especially given Trilogy is a solid

30 regional operator. This relationship should help generate

20 above-average organic growth while new investments deliver

10 attractive external growth.

60m

40m

20m Potential catalysts:

2024 2025 2026

F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M • SHOP operational upside presents attractive growth. We

AHR US Rel. S&P 500 COMPOSITE MA 40 weeks believe AHR can generate significant incremental NOI by

Source: Bloomberg and RBC Capital Markets estimates for Target achieving pre-COVID occupancy and margins. We expect

Valuation occupancy and margins to ultimately exceed pre-COVID

Price Target Justification: Our $56/share target is based levels.

on a ~24.5x multiple on our $2.30/share 2H27/1H28 AFFO • Trilogy relationship should yield new opportunities. We

estimate. This multiple reflects our expectation of 7 years of expect AHR can source attractive investment opportunities

elevated AFFO growth (~15%) and a long-term multiple of via Trilogy. These deals could pick up, especially now that

~21.5x, which would be largely in line with our VTR target and AHR's cost of capital has improved.

a discount to our WELL target.