VOW3: Takeaways from Mgmt Meetings

Research evidence excerpt

VOW3: Takeaways from Mgmt Meetings

tecture could deliver further cost savings relative EPS, Adj Diluted

to the current EV lineup, though full margin parity with ICEs by 2030 is 2025 3.69A 4.34A (0.96)A 6.28A

not guaranteed. 2026 2.61A 5.03E 8.31E 5.00E

• VW can defend European share, though regulatory changes are the All values in EUR unless otherwise noted.

key swing factor. Chinese expansion in Europe has come largely at the Priced as of prior trading day's market close, EST (unless otherwise noted).

expense of Korean and Japanese OEMs, with VW's share broadly stable.

If Chinese OEMs are forced to localize, use western suppliers, and comply

with European regulations, share losses for VW could be limited to only a

couple of percentage points in our view. However, policy changes tend to

be slow and delays represent a downside risk. We think there is roughly a

two-year window before Chinese OEMs have the localization and dealer

networks to mount a credible challenge.

• Going local-for-local across regions. VW is pursuing a local-for-local

framework — Xpeng's zonal architecture for the east, Rivian's EE

architecture for the west — with a significant portion of the €5.8B Rivian

JV primarily a licensing arrangement for IP that could have taken a decade

to build internally. In North America, a USMCA tariff resolution from

27.5% to 15% could represent a ~€900M EBIT tailwind, and we think

there could be a NA strategy update post-USMCA negotiations in July.

• Capital allocation priorities explained. Mgmt's NCF priority order

is future technology investment, balance sheet strengthening, then

shareholder returns — with buybacks unlikely near-term in our view.

The rationale for prioritizing balance sheet strength is how quickly cash

burn can accelerate for global OEMs.