Pulling up to the pump: Tracking U.S. retail fuel margins

Research evidence excerpt

Pulling up to the pump: Tracking U.S. retail fuel margins

owed by an 8:30 a.m. ET Source: OPIS and RBC Capital Markets estimates

conference call (webcast link).

Relevant RBC CM research

Commodity Comment: Cross Currents: Geopolitics: Strait Talk "Once S&P/TSX Consumer Disc. Weekly share price performance 1.2%

again, oil moved lower on headlines of progress in Iran negotiations, but S&P/TSX Consumer StaplesTSX 0.4%0.9%

in our conversation with Dr. Sultan Al Jaber yesterday, the ADNOC Group S&P500ATD -0.7%-0.7%

CEO noted that even if the war ended tomorrow, it would take at least four S&P500 StaplesMUSA -5.5% -1.2%

months for 80% of pre-crisis flows to resume, with full returns unlikely until CASY -6.0%

H1'27."

Source: S&P Capital IQ

Modi's CPG Supply Chain Intel Vol. 1: "On the demand side, the consumer

remains under genuine stress: value-seeking behavior, private label

acceleration, and declining mid-tier category volumes are not transitory

dynamics—they are deepening, and the K-shaped divergence between

income cohorts shows no signs of resolving."

Walmart Inc. Q1 2027 Earnings Call [NYSE: WMT, covered by RBC's

Steven Shemesh], F1Q'27 Review: "The team pointed to the number of

gallons that customers filled up at fuel stations for the most recent period

fell below 10 for the first time since 2022, which signaled to them that

pressure on the low income consumer may be worsening. Importantly

during 1Q, pressure was subdued due to higher tax refund demand."

Priced as of prior trading day's market close, EST (unless otherwise noted). All values in CAD unless otherwise noted

Disseminated: May 22, 2026 12:34EDT; Produced: May 22, 2026 12:34EDT

For Required Non-U.S. Analyst and Conflicts Disclosures, see page 14