Model Update: Q4 Beat; FY27 Guide Below Street; Unit Elasticity Key Focus

Research evidence excerpt

Model Update: Q4 Beat; FY27 Guide Below Street; Unit Elasticity Key Focus

USA | Cosmetics, Household & Personal Care

e.l.f. beauty EquityMayResearch20, 2026

TARGET | ESTIMATE CHANGEModel Update: Q4 Beat; FY27 Guide Below

RATING BUYStreet; Unit Elasticity Key Focus

PRICE $50.72^

Q4 beat across sales, EBITDA, and EPS. FY27 outlook resets ELF to lower

organic growth baseline, with core consumption +LSD% and focus shifting to PRICE TARGET | % TO PT $70.00 ($85.00) | +38%

whether price cuts & incremental innovation can reaccel units. GM is guided flat 52W HIGH-LOW $150.99 - $50.13

as tariff relief & pricing are offset by Rhode retail mix and potential oil/input cost FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 95.3% | 147.93

pressure. Rhode remains a strong growth asset with global runway, but is not MARKET CAP $3.0B

yet scaled enough to fully offset sentiment on softer core. PT to $70. TICKER ELF ^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise

noted.

Strong Beat Down P&L: ELF beat sales, EBITDA, and EPS for the quarter. Sales came in 6% above

cons, growing +35% Y/Y. Consumption outpaced the broader category for FY26, driving 115bps

FY (Mar) CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

of market share gains. GM increased +140bps to 73% vs. 71.2% cons, driven by pricing, partially

2027 2028 2027 2028

offset by tariff costs. SG&A at 67% of sales +1,500bps Y/Y, primarily driven by higher marketing &

digital spend, along with continued investments in team and infrastructure. Adj. EBITDA of $59M EBITDA +2% -7% -1% +1%

was ahead of ests for $50M. EPS of $0.32 was ahead of cons of $0.29. EPS -8% -15% -8% -6%

Core Rebase Centers Debate on Unit Elasticity: Co’s FY27 framework reflects a reset to a lower 2027 ($) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY

organic baseline, with core consumption trending +LSD% and FY27 organic +4-5%.