Data & Insights: Port Container Volumes Holding Up

Research evidence excerpt

Data & Insights: Port Container Volumes Holding Up

volume growth. Adjusting for International Ports, we

estimate 2% YoY domestic port volume growth vs 1%YoY for industry. This compares with 2%

YoY organic volume growth for Adani Ports’ in FY26 vs. 4% YoY industry growth. The growth

differential is narrowing now as the impact of coal volumes weakness is declining.

7% YoY decline in IR container volumes vs. 7% YoY rise at Ports: May 2026 till date, IR

container volumes declined 3% YoY vs. 7% YoY decline seen since the Middle East tensions

began. We note May 2025 (base) also saw the impact of geopolitical tensions on India’s

western border, where the key Container Ports are located.

Marginal MoM decline in freight rates in May 26: Freight rates in Apr-26 remained flat YoY

though the trends are different across lanes. Freight rates are a key monitorable given the

recent rise in diesel prices. However, we note that Delhivery management in their Mar-26Q

concall highlighted that the company has a pass-through clause in its Part-Truck Load

contracts for any rise in fuel prices. Medium and Heavy Commercial Vehicle (CV) truck

registrations in May-26 to date, rose only 10% YoY vs. 17-41% you rise seen since Nov-25.

Prefer Ports to Logistics: We expect 13-29% FY26-30E EBITDA CAGR for JSWI and ADSEZ, led

by 11-19% CAGR in volumes, between capacity addition, government’s terminal privatisation

initiatives at Major Ports, and efficiencies. Concor is a key beneficiary of upcoming Dedicated

Freight Corridor connectivity to JNPT targeted by 1QFY27E; rise in competitive intensity with

port companies pursuing logistics is a key monitorable.

Exhibit 1 - Ports and Logistics: Valuation snapshot

Company Mkt Cap Reco CMP (Rs) Target Upside EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x)