FX Tactician The currency blockade

Research evidence excerpt

FX Tactician The currency blockade

22 May 2026

Currencies

Global FX Tactician

The currency blockade

◆ The geopolitical stalemate, as the blockade in the Strait of Daragh Maher

Hormuz continues, looks set to trap G10 in a narrow range Head of Digital Assets Research, Sr FX Strategist

HSBC Bank plc

daragh.maher@hsbc.com

◆ Our calls for most G10 currency pairs are a sea of grey +44 20 7991 8888

sideways arrows, even as rate differentials get some traction Paul Mackel

Global Head of FX Research

The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited

◆ One exception is our bearishness on GBP, based on global paulmackel@hsbc.com

and local factors; we express it through GBP-NZD downside +852 2288 5523

Nick Andrews

Senior FX Strategist

In our latest Currency Outlook, we laid out our medium-term view of the FX market HSBC Bank plc

and described it as “stuck” (see Currency Outlook: Stuck, 15 May 2026). For the nick.andrews@hsbc.com

+44 207 9912376

most part, the same messaging is true for our short-term tactical view of G10 FX,

Tom Wookey

notably for the USD. Without an end to the Middle East stalemate (in either direction), European FX Strategist

the USD is likely to trade sideways. While trapping the USD, the geopolitical HSBC Bank plc

thomas.wookey@hsbc.com

stalemate at least allows other factors to gain some influence over FX alongside +44 20 79913367

energy prices. The Fed narrative is still in transition from dove to hawk, whereas this Joey Chew

journey is already more complete (and priced in) for Europe. We believe this will help Head of Asia FX Research

The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation

put a floor under the USD but not necessarily act as a catalyst for it to push higher. Limited, Singapore Branch

A sideways grey arrow is warranted.