EXPN: 2H26 Results: Conservative Guide Likely Set Up for a Beat

Research evidence excerpt

EXPN: 2H26 Results: Conservative Guide Likely Set Up for a Beat

), and a conservative All market data in GBp; all financial data in USD.

approach to potential macro scenarios from Middle East developments. Priced as of prior trading day's market close, EST (unless otherwise noted).

Benchmark EBIT margin expansion of ~50bps reflects positive drivers

including operating leverage from business scaling, productivity benefits

from AI deployment, consumer services scaling effects, and reduction in

dual-run technology costs (providing ~20bps annually as cloud migration

completes), offset by headwinds from FICO mortgage royalty pass-through

costs and margin impact from the breach contract wind-down. Additional

guidance includes net interest expense of $250-260m, benchmark tax rate

~26%, capex at ~8% of revenue, and expected closing share count of ~870m

shares following the new $1bn buyback program.

Mortgages and Mortgage Outlook: North American mortgage revenue

grew 45% in FY26 despite slight volume declines. For FY27, management

expects mortgage volumes to decrease modestly due to rising interest

rates, with revenue growth projected in the single digits. The company

acquired Own Up, an AI-driven mortgage platform, to expand their

consumer marketplace in the mortgage/home category. No structural

market changes are assumed in their FY27 guidance.

AI as a revenue generator. With more than 90% of revenue anchored

in proprietary data and a strategy centered on platform embedding,

Experian appears well-positioned to benefit from the AI transition. EXPN

noted an incremental $15bn TAM from AI-driven opportunities across

three vectors: increased activity in existing markets, evolution of current

markets with new use cases, and expansion into new distribution channels.