RESTAURANTS : Friday Food for Thought: Texas Land Grab

Research evidence excerpt

RESTAURANTS : Friday Food for Thought: Texas Land Grab

EQUITIES

RESTAURANTS

Friday Food for Thought: Texas Land Grab

Restaurant chains are increasingly chasing the same handful of Sunbelt markets – but not every22 MAY 2026

Sector Research Report category is expanding the same. Using ’26 projecting openings from franchise disclosure docs, we

Production time: 11:14* (London time)

analyzed ~4.5K future units across ~50 chains. Texas stands out as the industry’s clearResearch Analysts & Publishing Entities

development epicenter, ranking #1 in projected openings across nearly every major category. But

Steve McManus beneath the surface, the geo mix tells a more important story: Burger development appearsBNP Paribas Securities Corp1

(+1) 347 899 5065 increasingly concentrated in existing strongholds, while Coffee and Chicken still exhibit broader

Stephen.Mcmanus@us.bnpparibas.com national whitespace characteristics. Let us know if you’d like the underlying dataset.

Ken Deng

BNP Paribas Securities Corp1 Texas dominates across almost every segment (Figure 2). Ranking #1 in projected openings for

(+1) 631 568 6767 Burger, Pizza/Subs, Mexican/Healthy and Chicken; #2 in Coffee. Across our dataset, Texas is the

kaiyuan.deng@us.bnpparibas.com leading development market at ~11% of all projected openings vs. ~9% of the U.S. pop (~1.2x

population-weighted development density). We believe this reflects a culmination of migration trends,

pop. growth, favorable development economics, and franchisee appetite for scaled growth markets.

Burger looks increasingly concentrated. ~22% of projected openings are concentrated in Texas

alone. Development increasingly appears focused on densifying existing stronghold markets (TX,

FL, CA).