RICHEMONT : FY26 Results: 2% EBIT beat vs BNPP ex one-offs, JM at +16% in 4Q

Research evidence excerpt

RICHEMONT : FY26 Results: 2% EBIT beat vs BNPP ex one-offs, JM at +16% in 4Q

conomic deterioration brings subdued trading

conditions for luxury goods players. Luxury goods companies face a 'double whammy' as

lower sales growth (or even worse, negative sales growth) brings operating deleverage,

given the high fixed cost nature of the industry. Lower sales growth and operating

deleverage compound multiple compression. Luxury goods sales and share price

performance suffer from travel disruption. The travel retail market is important for luxury

goods - the bulk of luxury goods products are bought by people abroad - given the

significant price gaps between markets (both structural and FX-related) and the relatively

'high ticket' nature of these purchases. War, terrorist attacks and epidemics have a very

negative impact on Luxury Goods. Stock-specific risks include (i) stronger competition from

Tiffany following its acquisition by industry leader LVMH, (ii) Specialist Watchmakers not

confirming their revival, and (iii) suboptimal use of significant cash pile.

Richemont ADR (Outperform, Target Price USD24)

Investment case

Even in a less favourable macro environment, Jewellery demand should continue to be

supported by structural factors such as (i) brands taking share from unbranded

jewellery, which still accounts for two-thirds of the market, (ii) China having only recently

started to discover Western-style Jewellery brands and trends as opposed to local

products, (iii) women becoming increasingly financially independent and buying for

themselves. In addition, Richemont entered this global macro slowdown as a stronger

business: Cartier's brand heat has increased significantly in recent years (stronger