SWEDISH ORPHAN BIOVITRUM AB : POZ topline Ph III showing a step-up from existing therapies

Research evidence excerpt

SWEDISH ORPHAN BIOVITRUM AB : POZ topline Ph III showing a step-up from existing therapies

n SOBI's key launch assets. While we consider

olezarsen's 2027e launch in sHTG relatively de-risked in light of stellar Ph III data and

approval already secured in the US, other drivers of our above-consensus mid-term

outlook are subject to clinical trial success and approval: namely pozdeutinurad Ph III

success in progressive gout and Gamifant launch in IDS. We also note that for the first

time, SOBI will be commercialising non-orphan (albeit rare-adjacent) opportunities which

we believe carries an element of increased execution risk vs the historical business

model.

Swedish Orphan Biovitrum AB ADR (Outperform, Target Price USD27)

Investment case

Positive data for olezarsen (in sHTG) and Gamifant (in sepsis), and SOBI's acquisition

of Arthrosi in December has meaningfully changed the equity story in the past 6

months. High visibility on the near-to-mid-term launch profile (five launches between

2026-29e), proven commercial execution as well as strong earnings momentum give

us confidence in SOBI's ability to deliver on our forecast 2025-30e revenue/EPS CAGR

of 12/14%. We also see potential for continued earnings upgrades as confidence that

SOBI can deliver on their SEK55bn 2030 revenue target increases. We now forecast

SEK51bn (Cons <SEK50bn) revenues in 2030e and a 40% margin. With the near-term

catalyst path conducive to continue driving share price performance, we reiterate

Outperform.

Valuation methodology

We set our $27 TP by converting our DCF-derived valuation of SEK500 to USD using

SEKUSD rate of 0.11 and considering that 1 ADR share = 0.5 ordinary shares.

BNP Paribas Research Swedish Orphan Biovitrum AB / Swedish Orphan Biovitrum AB ADR 22 MAY 2026 page 2