NTPC Ltd. Overweight: Steady Growth; Defensive Business; Reasonable Valuations

Research evidence excerpt

NTPC Ltd. Overweight: Steady Growth; Defensive Business; Reasonable Valuations

onsent for units 1 and 2 was received from AERB

in March 2026, design consultancy was awarded in December 2025, and the Rs8bn equity

infusion was completed by JV partners in January 2026. The nuclear island EPC NIT is

expected by June 2026 and TG island by March 2027, with first pour of concrete

anticipated in August 2027 and first unit synchronization in November 2032, followed

by subsequent units at 6-month intervals. Beyond Mahi Banswara, NTPC has established

NTPC Parmanu Urja Nigam Limited and is exploring 30 potential locations across

multiple states, but these remain at the preliminary study stage with no near-term

execution certainty. Nuclear remains a decade-away growth lever rather than a medium-

term earnings contributor.

• Fuel Security: Comfortable Position with Growing Captive Mining Contribution -

Coal stock at stations stood at approximately 18 days, with captive mines meeting nearly

18% of total coal requirement. Coal production from group captive mines under

commercial operation grew 8.5% y/y to 47.88 MMT. Total coal supply for FY26 was

240.65 MMT (captive 42.39 MMT, other domestic 196.13 MMT, imported 2.26 MMT),

down from 253.26 MMT in FY25, reflecting lower generation. The Pakri Barwadi

Northwest mine commenced production in December 2025, and the full transfer of

mining operations to NTPC Mining Limited was completed effective April 2026.

Limited gas dependence and negligible imported coal share insulate NTPC from global

commodity volatility, though the overall coal supply decline mirrors the generation

backing-down trend.

• Other Updates - NGEL experienced grid curtailment of 314 MU during FY26. The