Iron ore Prices recalibrate higher as marginal costs increase; raising short-term prices and long-term price

Research evidence excerpt

Iron ore Prices recalibrate higher as marginal costs increase; raising short-term prices and long-term price

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

25 May 2026

Iron ore

Prices recalibrate higher as marginal costs increase;

raising short-term prices and long-term price

Key takeaways from our iron ore market review: 1) China steel production was Australia Metals & Mining

down 4.1% YTD in April – this is a relatively soft start to the year, but the April Lyndon Fagan

annualised rate is near 1bn tonnes, which is better than any month through 2H25 – steel (61-2) 9003-8648

exports were soft in Jan/Feb but recovered to 101/110Mtpa in March/April. 2) lyndon.fagan@jpmorgan.com

China’s YTD iron ore imports are up almost 30Mt – most of this has gone to port J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited

stocks, which are now showing signs of a drawdown after hitting record levels (likely Jonathon Sharp

BHP drawdown post CMRG negotiation outcome), and 3) Iron ore prices have risen (61 2) 9003-8312

jonathon.sharp@jpmorgan.com

since the beginning of the Middle East conflict despite better seaborne iron ore supply, J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited

and uninspiring China steel output. We attribute the price move to higher costs.

Devwrat Vegad

Marginal miners have seen +7/t spot FOB cost inflation as a result of diesel/explosives (91-22) 6157-3608

price moves. Meanwhile, freight has also risen $5/t from WA, and $13/t from Brazil. devwrat.vegad@jpmchase.com

We have updated our near-term prices by ~$5/t ($105/t / $99/t in 2026/27) to account J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited/ J.P.

for the higher cost curve. We have also raised our long-term real price from $80/t to Morgan India Private Limited