Iron ore Prices recalibrate higher as marginal costs increase; raising short-term prices and long-term price

Research evidence excerpt

Iron ore Prices recalibrate higher as marginal costs increase; raising short-term prices and long-term price

J P M O R G A N Europe Equity Research

24 May 2026

Iron ore

Prices recalibrate higher as marginal costs increase;

raising short-term prices and long-term price

Key takeaways from our iron ore market review: 1) China steel production was European Metals, Mining & Steel

ACdown 4.1% YTD in April – this is a relatively soft start to the year, but the April Dominic O'Kane

annualised rate is near 1bn tonnes, which is better than any month through 2H25 – steel (44-20) 7742-6729

exports were soft in Jan/Feb but recovered to 101/110Mtpa in March/April. 2) dominic.j.okane@jpmorgan.com

China’s YTD iron ore imports are up almost 30Mt – most of this has gone to port J.P. Morgan Securities plc

stocks, which are now showing signs of a drawdown after hitting record levels (likely Patrick Jones

BHP drawdown post CMRG negotiation outcome), and 3) Iron ore prices have risen (44-20) 7742-5964

patrick.jones@jpmorgan.com

since the beginning of the Middle East conflict despite better seaborne iron ore supply, J.P. Morgan Securities plc

and uninspiring China steel output. We attribute the price move to higher costs. Australia Metals & Mining

Marginal miners have seen +7/t spot FOB cost inflation as a result of diesel/explosives

price moves. Meanwhile, freight has also risen $5/t from WA, and $13/t from Brazil. Lyndon Fagan

(61-2) 9003-8648

We have updated our near-term prices by ~$5/t ($105/t / $99/t in 2026/27) to account lyndon.fagan@jpmorgan.com

for the higher cost curve. We have also raised our long-term real price from $80/t to J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited

$90/t (last updated in 2Q23) to reflect general inflation across inputs, reduced quality LatAm Materials