Volume Trends Point to Upside Potential Versus Expectations

Research evidence excerpt

Volume Trends Point to Upside Potential Versus Expectations

May 20, 2026 | 19:33 ET~

CN Railway

CNR-TSX Rating Price: May-20 Target Total Rtn Transportation

CNI-NYSE Outperform $157.75 $169.00 9%

Fadi Chamoun, CFA Analyst

fadi.chamoun@bmo.com (416) 359-6775

Amanda Abraham, CFA Senior Associate

Volume Trends Point to Upside Potential Versus amanda.abraham@bmo.com (416) 816-9139

Fred Kornachev Senior AssociateExpectations

fred.kornachev@bmo.com (437) 335-0049

Bottom Line: Legal Entity: BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc.

With valuation at undemanding levels, volumes tracking ahead of expectations,

2YR Price Volume Chart

and strong operating performance—including potential for high-single-digit labor 190

productivity in Q2/26—we continue to see an attractive risk/reward in CNR and reiterate 180

our Outperform rating. 170160

The newly announced partnership with AltaGas and Keyera further supports the 150 765

medium-term growth outlook. We estimate the initiative could drive 20–22k 140 43

incremental annual carloads in the Petroleum & Chemicals segment starting mid-2028, 130 21

120 0

translating to approximately $125mm of annualized revenue, with potential for further Nov May Nov May

LHS: Price (C$) / RHS: Volume (mm) Source: FactSet

upside as volumes scale over time.

Company Data in C$

Key Points Dividend $3.66 Shares O/S (mm) 611.4

Yield 2.3% Market Cap (mm) $96,448CNR announces a partnership with Keyera and AltaGas, combining Keyera’s

ACE Rail Terminal with CNR’s rail network and AltaGas’ West Coast export AD Vol. (mm) 2.39 Net Debt (mm) $20,114

platform. Keyera is investing ~$240m to construct the ACE Rail Terminal in Alberta, BMO Estimates in C$

with the terminal handling ~45k barrels per day of propane and butane upon start-up (FY-Dec.) 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E