All Gassed Up for M&A - 2026 AGA Takeaways

Research evidence excerpt

All Gassed Up for M&A - 2026 AGA Takeaways

common sense solutions to reducing the liability magnitude, though it expects ongoing

opposition for the latter from the legal sector.

• Incremental Oncor Capex Increasingly Visible. CFO Karen Sedgwick walked through the key

components of the company's $10B incremental capital expenditure opportunity at Oncor, which

are increasingly looking like a "when" not "if" investment set. The $10B consists of ~$3B for the

Permian 765kV buildout, $2.7B for the SRP through 2030, $2.5B of transmission upgrades, and $1B

for large C&I customers. While the company intends to maintain its typical fourth-quarter update

cadence, it may provide incremental updates as it gains regulatory approval or line of sight to

confirming these investments will transition into the base plan. Importantly, this $10B does not

reflect any significant data center investment needs, making the sizable plan less data center

exposed than many regulated peers.

• Robust Transmission Supply Chain Ready to Support Growth Outlook. Given the heavily

transmission-focused investment plan, management reminded investors of the robust supply

chain network the company developed after a single vendor challenge years ago. The company

has sourced all inventory and labor necessary through 2028, and has begun work to address the

outer years of the current plans.

○765kV NIMBYism a Messaging Challenge. Similar to the theme of data center opposition

discussed at AGA, management believes that the recent resistance to the state's 765kV

pathway buildout is a communications/messaging challenge rather than a fundamental

concern. In addition to the substantial savings projected from the system, the team also

underscored that the marginally higher-cost 765kV proposals require significantly less