Security Growth Sustaining

Research evidence excerpt

Security Growth Sustaining

Future Investigation: There are a few areas that we think could be worthy of future investigation. For

example, we think it would be interesting to better understand cloud costs, and more specifically storage

costs, as a percentage of the total RSC solution cost.

RBRK – Expecting Solid Quarter: For Rubrik, we/consensus estimate $81-87 million in net new ARR vs

$88 million in the year ago quarter, and roughly flat net new ARR for FY27 (Jan). We believe that both the

quarter and full year ARR estimates have upside tension. We do not make changes to our estimates.

We maintain our Outperform rating and raise our target price from $64 to $73 given our positive view

of Rubrik’s longer-term opportunities, though we envision potential near to medium-term headwinds

from rising costs and supply chain pressure. Our previous target price was based on 5-6x EV/FY28 ARR,

33x EV/FY27 FCF and 1.7x (EV/FY28 FCF)/(Rev Growth), and our new target price is based on 6-7x EV/FY28

ARR, 38x FY27 FCF and 2.0x (EV/FY28 FCF)/(Rev Growth). On an (EV/CY27 FCF)/(rev growth) basis, using

consensus estimates, Rubrik currently trades at a 1.4x multiple, which is in line with the high growth

software mean and modestly below Rubrik’s best of breed security peers, in our judgment.

PANW – Appears Well-Positioned for Growing Enterprise Security Needs: We expect PANW to

report healthy April quarter results, driven by robust security demand that likely includes strong product

growth. More broadly, we think that the launch of Mythos and other leading security-enabled AI models

are serving to elevate the topic of security in the context of enterprise AI-readiness, which can drive

incremental net new spend for PANW and others longer-term, in our judgement. Recent channel checks