BMO Metals Brief

Research evidence excerpt

BMO Metals Brief

opper production forecast to

~5.3Mt (-2% y/y), down from prior guidance of ~5.6Mt, citing lower grades, maintenance and

operational constraints, according to Mining.com. Output is expected to recover to ~5.5Mt in 2027

(+4% y/y), still below the previous ~5.97Mt estimate. The downgrade reinforces an already tight

global market, supporting prices above $6/lb, with Cochilco raising its 2026 price forecast to

$5.55/lb despite only a marginal refined surplus (~12kt) expected.

 Indonesia plans export controls: The Indonesian government plans to centralise exports of key

commodities as part of efforts to boost state revenues and tighten the country’s grip over its Source: LME, BMO Capital Markets

natural resources, according to a parliamentary speech by President Prabowo Subianto yesterday.

Prabowo said that Indonesia had lost $908bn in revenues in the last 34 years, adding that key

exports like palm oil and coal will be sold via a central government-run enterprise in future. Spot Gold

Prabowo's remarks confirm earlier accounts from two sources familiar with the matter, who

added that the move is aimed at addressing concerns about under-invoicing and transfer pricing.

 Iran War continues to boost electrification: BEV sales jumped in Europe in April according to

preliminary data from E-Mobility Europe, New Automotive and Fier Automotive, driven by strong

subsidies, policy support and higher gasoline prices. Across 15 European markets, BEV

registrations rose by 34.1% y/y following a 51.3% rise in March, with BEV registrations year-to-

date up 31.3%. Meanwhile, automotive giant Stellantis announced plans to launch a €15,000

(~$17,500) compact BEV in 2028, helping the giant improve its underused BEV production

capacity in Europe.