F3Q26 Preview: Integrations Advancing, but Organic NNARR the Number to Watch

Research evidence excerpt

F3Q26 Preview: Integrations Advancing, but Organic NNARR the Number to Watch

May 20, 2026

differences in ARR methodology. We forecast ~$358M in

organic net new NGS ARR in F3Q, and believe this is the metric

that will drive sentiment around the stock, with investors less

likely to give Palo credit for inorganic outperformance.

○In our view, one underappreciated angle is Venafi. The

acquisition brought certificate lifecycle and machine identity

capabilities that management plans to deliver to Palo's

65,000+ firewall customers. We view this motion as one of

the more tangible near term upside opportunities to monitor,

while broader platform cross-sell will likely take longer to

integrate.

●Chronosphere Expansion. In January, Palo Alto completed its

acquisition of Chronosphere, a next-generation observability platform.

Chronosphere, recognized as a Leader in the 2025 Gartner Magic

Quadrant for Observability Platforms, contributed ~$200M in ARR in

F2Q. Management also highlighted a multi-year nine figure expansion

with a leading AI model provider in the quarter, underscoring

Chronosphere's traction with AI-native infrastructure buyers. In F3Q,

we are watching for evidence of product integration, including

Chronosphere’s work with Cortex AgentiX to enable agents for

observability workflows and the integration of Calyptia into XSIAM

to support security data pipelining. Both represent paths to product

differentiation vs. standalone observability vendors.

●Continued Platform Success. Palo Alto added ~110 new platformized

customers in F2Q26, up 35% y/y. Large customer growth remained

strong, with customers generating >$5M in NGS ARR increasing 48%

y/y to 173, while customers generating >$10M in NGS ARR increased

50% y/y to 60. We believe cybersecurity consolidation remains in the