Latin American Economic Comment "Mexico H1’May CPI: Headline Inflation I..."

Research evidence excerpt

Latin American Economic Comment "Mexico H1’May CPI: Headline Inflation I..."

Global Research

22 May 2026ab

Latin American Economic Comment Economics

AmericasMexico H1’May CPI: Headline Inflation Improves,

Services Inflation Tilted Upwards Rafael De La Fuente

Economist

rafael.delafuente@ubs.com

+1-203-719 7127

Inflation reading roughly in line with expectations but higher than our estimate Andrea Casaverde

Inflation in H1’May came in at -0.16%/0.13% from headline/core, roughly in line with Economist

consensus (-0.14%/0.15%). We were close on core inflation (0.15%) but off on andrea.casaverde@ubs.com

+1-203-713-2515

headline, where we had estimated a larger biweekly 0.28% decline. 12m headline

inflation fell to 4.24%, down from 4.53% a month earlier. Core inflation remains stickier Roque Montero

downward, falling to 4.23% on a 12m basis, down from 4.27% in H1’Apr. Strategist

roque.montero@ubs.com

+1-203-719 2112

Core merchandise inflation improving, but services inflation impacted by

specific sectors

Relative to our numbers, our miss on headline was driven by an overestimation of the fall

in fresh fruits and vegetables, prices that we derive from weekly wholesale market

prices, which sometimes can take longer to feed through to the consumer. Specifically,

tomato prices at the retail level have yet to post meaningful declines. Otherwise, most of

our forecasts were on point. Outside of the seasonal decline in electricity rates in

northern states, energy prices remained well-behaved. Likewise for merchandise goods

prices within core, whose 12m inflation now stands at 3.85% driven by declines in both

processed food and non-food components, with the latter now clocking in below 3.0%.

Services inflation, meanwhile, increased to 4.60% on a 12m basis from 4.49% a month