First Read: Thai Airways "Q126 review: Fuel headwinds ahead" (Neutral) Yeung

Research evidence excerpt

First Read: Thai Airways "Q126 review: Fuel headwinds ahead" (Neutral) Yeung

Global Research

22 May 2026ab

First Read

EquitiesThai Airways

Q126 review: Fuel headwinds ahead Thailand

Airlines

12-month rating Neutral

Fuel headwinds set to hit earnings from Q226 onwards

After a steady Q126, we expect a more challenging operating environment on a 12m price target Bt6.00

significantly higher jet fuel price. Since the start of the Middle East conflict, the

Singapore jet fuel price averaged US$187/bbl, up from US$93/bbl pre-war. In response,

Price (22 May 2026) Bt6.05

Thai Airways has raised airfares, reduced flight operations, imposed stricter cost

discipline and deferred capex, which, in our view, could only partially offset the upward RIC: THAI.BK BBG: THAI TB

pressure of a significantly higher fuel cost (made up of 30% of its opex in Q126). Trading data and key metrics

Nonetheless, we think Thai Airways is likely better positioned thanks to its heavy

52-wk range Bt17.80-5.80

exposure to European routes which face stronger demand as traffic shifts away from the

Market cap. Bt171b/US$5.24b

Gulf carriers (about 39% of ASK in 2025), and its healthy balance sheet (39% net debt

Shares o/s 28,303m (ORD)

to equity ratio). The stock is down 63% vs the peak in Aug-25. At the current share

price, we see balanced risk reward. Free float 19%

Avg. daily volume ('000) 35,930

Levers to mitigate fuel cost pressure Avg. daily value (m) Bt225

Higher fuel price appears to be the biggest near-term challenge facing Thai. Although Common s/h equity (12/26E) Bt85.8b

50% and 35% of its fuel consumption is hedged in Q226 and H226 respectively, its P/BV (12/26E) 2.0x

hedge instrument is primarily based on crude oil underlyings (Brent oil) which is subject Net debt to EBITDA (12/26E) 1.1x