Amkor Technology "LT targets approach our expectations by 2030 as it scales..."

Research evidence excerpt

Amkor Technology "LT targets approach our expectations by 2030 as it scales..."

$2.25-$2.75 by 2028 with mix, operating leverage minus some cost on the

Arizona ramp. The company reaffirmed 100-200bp higher opex during the initial

ramp phase in 2027 which would improve in 2028 and get Arizona to break-even

in 2029. By 2030, it targets scaling Arizona, operating leverage and mix to reach

US$5.00+ earnings with the Arizona fab targeting to reach 30%+ GMs.

FigureSource:Company12: UBSdata,vs.UBSe,VA ConsensusVisible Alpha 1Q26A-3Q26E and 2025A-2027EUBS

Q&A follow-ups

Financial model confidence. The company views the models representing its

visibility in the portfolio and confidence in the growth. It expects to execute

against these models and plan to beat it so views the model of ‘at least’. It is

factoring in programs with high visibility and confidence but has other programs

early in the pipeline including phase 2 Arizona which could change the models. It

did not build a strong downcycle in but right now expects the positive cycle to

continue for some time.

Margin leverage. In the next few years, mix would drive more margins followed

by leverage from higher utilization. In the 2nd phase, more of the room would

come more from leverage scaling up the business further.

Arizona fab targets for products. Amkor expects customers to maintain high

utilization in the US and then have more fluctuations in Asia. It views most

products for Arizona are ones fab in US rather than coming from front-end fabs in

Asia. For product types, it would support high volume and low mix products in

Arizona for optimal cost structure though also could see some advanced projects

including CPO in Arizona.

Additional phases in Arizona. Customer discussions are progressing rapidly,