Lithium "Fine-tuning supply, watching demand..." Shaw

Research evidence excerpt

Lithium "Fine-tuning supply, watching demand..." Shaw

1460520110001through 2027/28. Crucially, while we are net adding new supply in this update, we are

yishu.yan@ubs.com

wary there remains downside risk to some projects within our database and highlight

+86-21-3866 8782

CATL's lepidolite mine which we have producing 40kt CY26 though still remains off

according to recent China feedback, and with other Yichun lepidolite projects set to halt Cherie Miao

through re-licensing and permitting procedures in 2H. Associate Analyst

cherie.miao@ubs.com

+852-3712 2035

How is demand tracking?

Joshua Spector, CFA

China domestic EV sales continue to improve with EV insurance registrations in April

Analyst

819k, up 3% m/m but still down 6% y/y. We expect a continued improvement into 2H joshua.spector@ubs.com

on new model launches, and note average PV battery size is +25% y/y, driving higher +1-212-713 6188

battery demand overall. EV exports continue to expand, +82% y/y to 769k in April, and

Fintan Collins

we expect this trend to continue increasing global brand awareness and with oil prices

Associate Analyst

still elevated. ESS exports also maintain positive momentum (+44% y/y) with 11.4GWh fintan.collins@ubs.com

noted for April. Battery production totalled 183.9GWh (including EV and ESS batteries), +61-3-9242 6179

up 56% YoY and 3% MoM. See our China Auto team's note for more details: Domestic

Christopher Perrella

electrification >60% and export electrification >50% for the first time.

christopher.perrella@ubs.com

When could we start seeing some demand destruction from higher prices? +1-212-713 1443

A key debate we are currently having is at what price level could we start seeing some Ben Wood

demand destruction. To this extent we and the global battery team note a renewed Analyst