UBS: Fast Take: Salik Company PJSC "Salik; 5% VAT on tolls from June, no imp..."

Research evidence excerpt

UBS: Fast Take: Salik Company PJSC "Salik; 5% VAT on tolls from June, no imp..."

Forecast returns

Forecast price appreciation 16.4%

Forecast dividend yield 4.0%

Forecast stock return 20.3%

Market return assumption 8.9%

Forecast excess return 11.4%

Company Description

Salik is Dubai's exclusive toll-road operator, offering a pure play on structural mobility growth.

Beyond tolling, it is expanding into complementary streams such as smart parking, insurance

(Liva) and other initiatives such as fuel stations and drive-through partnerships.

Valuation Method and Risk Statement

We value Salik using a DCF methodology. The key risks include:

Regulatory & Concession dependence - Salik operates under a 49-year exclusive concession

with Dubai’s RTA, and core levers like gate additions and the variable pricing framework are

subject to regulatory decisions rather than unilateral control. Any change in pricing,

exemptions, or approval timelines for new gates could directly alter revenue trajectory and

operating margins.

Macro & Traffic volume sensitivity - Toll volumes are tightly linked to Dubai’s macro drivers

such as daytime population, rising tourism, real estate activity and mobility trends. Any

slowdowns can compress trips and top-line. Management disclosures repeatedly attribute

growth to these external factors, underscoring downside if conditions weaken.

Execution risk in ancillary revenues - Medium-term plans count on scaling parking payments,

insurance integrations, customized tags and other digital monetization, all of which face

adoption, integration and regulatory readiness hurdles. Delays or underperformance would

limit diversification and keep earnings more dependent on the core tolling stream.