Global Oil and Gas "Hormuz tracker: day 83" Patricot

Research evidence excerpt

Global Oil and Gas "Hormuz tracker: day 83" Patricot

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Global Oil and Gas Equities

GlobalHormuz tracker: day 83

Oil Companies, Major

Henri Patricot, CFA

More hope ahead of a long weekend Analyst

Oil prices have moved lower at the end of the week on slightly more supportive henri.patricot@ubs.com

comments and developments ahead of a long weekend. US Secretary of State Marco +33-14-888 3033

Rubio said that there were "some good signs" in talks but that more work is needed Nayoung Kim

(link). Pakistan's army chief, seen as a key US-Iran mediator, has left for Iran (link). A Analyst

Qatari negotiating team has also reportedly arrived in Iran. nayoung.kim@ubs.com

+44-20-7568 4010

Oil & gas flows back down Joshua Stone

As we mentioned yesterday, there was no follow-through to the recent uptick in exports, Analyst

and the number of ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz remains well below the numbers joshua.stone@ubs.com

+44-20-7901 5588

of >30 reported by Iran at <10. The latest UBS Evidence Lab data (> Access Dataset)

shows only 3 oil & gas vessels crossing on Thursday, including the third VLCC that was Josh Silverstein

reported earlier this week. Volumes were down to ~2Mb yesterday and have only Analyst

averaged 1Mboe/d in May so far (Figure 4EstimatedoilandgasflowsexitingtheGulf,basedonDWT,inMboe/d), same as in April. The number of crossings for josh.silverstein@ubs.com

+1-212-713 3513

May is also still around 3, in line with the April average and significantly lower than

February's daily average of nearly 50 crossings. Flows through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait Tom Allen

have remained within the normal range (Figure 11Oil&gastankerspasingthroughtheBab-el-MandebStrait,innumberofshipsenteringandexitingtheRedSea). Analyst