Japan Machinery Sector "Machinery Sector Jan-Mar 2026 Results Review" Sasaki

Research evidence excerpt

Japan Machinery Sector "Machinery Sector Jan-Mar 2026 Results Review" Sasaki

Global Research

22 May 2026ab

Japan Machinery Sector Equities

JapanMachinery Sector Jan-Mar 2026 Results Review

Factory Equipment

Tsubasa Sasaki

Following Jan-Mar 2026 results, we maintain our bullish stance on the Analyst

machinery sector tsubasa.sasaki@ubs.com

We maintain our bullish stance because the results confirmed 1) the capex upcycle is +813-5208 6207

surpassing market expectations, and 2) an increasing number of companies are focusing

more on shareholder returns, profitability, and capital efficiency. Indeed, with the

exception of Komatsu, all the stocks we cover provided guidance for OP growth in

FY3/27, and many announced share buybacks. Expanding AI-related demand is a key

investment theme, including physical AI, semiconductors, data centres, and energy. The

earnings impact from the Middle East is limited at present, but we think potential

constraints in energy and naphtha supply, as well as a renewed acceleration of inflation

need to be monitored.

The current upcycle looks very strong

Characterised by a broad-based recovery across both end-markets and regions, the

current capex cycle looks to be entering a very strong upward phase. By end-market,

demand is firm in areas related to semiconductors and data centres, and remains solid in

aerospace & defence, energy, and infrastructure. Moreover, signs of recovery are

emerging in autos and among SMEs. By region, capex remains robust in China and

North America, while investment is expanding in Europe, and signs of a bottoming out

are surfacing in Japan. We expect capex to continue expanding, supported by sustained

demand in growth areas.

We prefer FA near term; sector rotation is the focus going forward