Lightspeed Commerce Inc "FQ4 2026 Earnings Recap" (Neutral) Chiodo

Research evidence excerpt

Lightspeed Commerce Inc "FQ4 2026 Earnings Recap" (Neutral) Chiodo

we see a challenging path toward achieving the company’s three year outlook: we

model ~13% gross profit growth in FY 2027 versus the medium term CAGR target of

~15-18% and forecast ~15.6% EBITDA margins in FY 2027 compared with

management’s goal of ~20% by FY 2028; with that said, we believe the pathway to

~20% adj. EBITDA margins has become more credible following the divestiture of

Upserve. As a result, while we acknowledge the foundational progress in the strategy

pivot, we await further evidence of sustained traction.

Upserve divestiture considerations: We also included an illustrative breakout of the

Upserve divestiture across Lightspeed’s reported revenue subsegments (subscription /

transaction-based / hardware & other) to help isolate and illustrate underlying growth

across the remaining subsegments on a post-divestiture basis. In constructing that

illustrative bridge, we anchored to the company’s disclosed Upserve contributions in

FY26 (Upserve contributed ~$130mm of revenue, ~$24mm of gross profit, and ~$5bn

of GTV, and encompassed ~3,200 U.S. hospitality customer locations), and then

mapped those impacts into the revenue line items to provide a clearer apples-to-apples

view of segment-level performance ex-Upserve. We note that Upserve has minimal

hardware revenue and lower than company average payments and software margins.

Valuation & estimates: We lower our price target to $10 (vs. prior $11) as we apply a

~7x multiple (vs. ~9x prior) to our CY 2027E EBITDA of ~$124mm (vs. ~$114mm prior).

Our ~7x CY 2027E EV/EBITDA multiple implies an MTG of ~0.5x (vs. prior ~0.25x).

What we liked: 1) Growth engines continued to outperform the broader business in