Channel checks: Trucks "Truck cycle coming into sight, but near term ord..."

Research evidence excerpt

Channel checks: Trucks "Truck cycle coming into sight, but near term ord..."

Global Research

22 May 2026ab

Channel checks: Trucks Equities

AmericasTruck cycle coming into sight, but near term

orders could be soft Industrial Equipment

Steven Fisher, CFA

Analyst

steven.fisher@ubs.com

Channel check: Capacity reduction, improving demand support the truck cycle +1-212-713 8634

We hosted ACT Research for a meeting with investors to discuss the state of the truck Avinatan Jaroslawicz

market. Here is what we learned: Analyst

avinatan.jaroslawicz@ubs.com

Recovery may be supply driven initially, but freight also improving: ACT

+1-212-713 1405

forecasts only ~2% GDP growth in 2026-28, and sees the truck recovery as more

supply driven initially. Truck supply has fallen from ~450k units to ~200k (based on Judah Aronovitz

DAT) and may contract further (higher oil prices), while ACT forecasts ~2.1% Associate Analyst

judah.aronovitz@ubs.com

freight growth in 2026, with demand strengthening seasonally in 2H.

+1-212-713-4881

Driver supply is tightening: New operating authorities, stricter CDL Lauren Sullivan

requirements, immigration constraints, ELD enforcement, increased broker liability Associate Analyst

(Montgomery v. Carbide), and demographics are all constraining driver supply. lauren.sullivan@ubs.com

+1-212-713 8230

Carriers expected to see further rate increases and buy more trucks: Carrier

profitability is improving and the expected continuation of tightening supply is

expected to support continued carrier profitability. ACT Research believes carriers

will look to replace the capacity they shed in recent years (~15% over three years).

Used truck prices expected to remain flat in 2026: Strong exports have

absorbed excess U.S.