LatAm Oil Weekly Monitor "The Navigator - Agency data in focus" Vasconcellos

Research evidence excerpt

LatAm Oil Weekly Monitor "The Navigator - Agency data in focus" Vasconcellos

Global Research

22 May 2026ab

LatAm Oil Weekly Monitor Equities

Latin AmericaThe Navigator - Agency data in focus

Energy

Tasso Vasconcellos

See this week’s key highlights across our coverage: Analyst

Fuel Dist. - 1) Delay in diesel subsidy payments raises concerns over tasso.vasconcellos@ubs.com

imports and supply: We believe the news, and its potential negative WK +55-11-2767 6683

implications, adds to fuel distributors’ concerns around the program Joao Barichello

framework - which has already been pushing them away from participation. 2) Associate Analyst

Government revised rules of fuel subsidy framework, excluding individual joao-pedro.barichello@ubs.com

margin disclosure: While we view the easing of margin disclosure +55-11-2767 6364

requirements as a potential incentive for distributor participation,

uncertainties remain, particularly due to ongoing concerns around increased

government scrutiny over pricing practices. 3) Brazil's April fuel volumes

showed both volumes and market share overall gains for majors:We

continue to see room for major players to capture further gains throughout

the year, supported by an improved competitive landscape and near-term

tailwinds from the Middle East conflict. While, we still see uncertainty around

where margins and market share will settle over the medium to long term.

Petrobras - 1) Petrobras adheres to new fuel subsidy program under MP

1,358: Considering new subsidies being received by importers, we estimate

diesel import parity gap could narrow to up to -8% (-R$0.33/l) and gasoline to

-26% (-R$0.89/l). That said, even with the subsidy, we still see room for an

adjustment in gasoline prices in the upcoming weeks. 2) April oil production