CIAB Survey: Commercial P&C Pricing Turn Negative for First Time Since 3Q17

Research evidence excerpt

CIAB Survey: Commercial P&C Pricing Turn Negative for First Time Since 3Q17

May 20, 2026

decay based on 1Q26 CEO commentary, see Sunday Scoop: Tracy's Treasure

Trove/Casualty Pricing Inflection Point.

●In our coverage, HIG and EG are demonstrating the greatest appetite to lean

into property business, although we think small commercial property (where

HIG dominates) is priced more adequately than large account.

Commercial Property - Largest Pricing Drag Vs. Other Lines - Not Letting

Up

Exhibit 1 - Commercial Property Pricing vs. Overall CIAB Pricing Index

22%

18%

14%

10%

6%

2%

-2%

-6%

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021 2021 2021 2021 2022 2022 2022 2022 2023 2023 2023 2023 2024 2024 2024 2024 2025 2025 2025 2025 2026

Commercial Property Average Account Size Across Commercial Lines

Source: Wolfe Research, CIAB Survey

How long can this soft pricing cycle last?

Our long experience in various pricing cycles tells us that soft cycles tend to last

longer than hard market cycles. Pricing had been firming to hard over the last 8 years,

longer than prior cycles. We think this soft pricing cycle may exceed that timeframe.

Essentially a whipsaw reaction in the opposite direction.

Exhibit 2 - Soft Pricing Cycles Last Longer Than Hard Pricing Cycles

Period Cycle Quarters Years

4Q99 - 4Q03 Hard 17 4.25

1Q04 - 2Q11 Soft 30 7.5

3Q11 - 1Q14 Hard 11 2.75

2Q14 - 3Q17 Soft 14 3.5

4Q17 - 4Q25 Hard 33 8.25

Source: Wolfe Research

In the last soft market, low interest rates helped preserve underwriting discipline.

This time, higher rates are likely to erode that discipline, which may put pressure on