Counting Contrails: Tracking Global Aircraft Schedules & Flight Activity #185

Research evidence excerpt

Counting Contrails: Tracking Global Aircraft Schedules & Flight Activity #185

Aerospace & Defense

Aerospace - Market Overweight

AEROSPACE May 20, 2026

Counting Contrails: Tracking Global Aircraft Schedules & TICKER RTG PT % UP

ATI OP $171 13.7%Flight Activity #185

BA OP $275 27.9%

CR OP $225 34.4%

The Wolfe Byte EMBJ OP $83 52.8%

Counting Contrails is our weekly look at global flight schedules & actual flight FTAI OP $346 54.8%

activity dissected by aircraft/engine type and region of flight. This week: schedules GE OP $360 26.2%

HEI PP NA NA

trims continue with weakness in flown activity seemingly spreading HWM OP $300 18.5%

HXL OP $101 14.4%

RTX OP $235 34.7%

Global Scheduled Capacity Update SARO OP $35 39.2%

May scheduled capacity is tracking down 1.2% y/y with 30bps of w/w trims TDG OP $1,745 48.0%

(230bps taken out of China Dom which is now down ~1%), while June was trimmed VSEC OP $255 60.7%

90bps w/w and is now +1.4% y/y (-280bps in ME and -160bps in APAC with more WWD OP $425 23.2% OP=Outperform, PP=Peer Perform,

modest trims in other regions). 2Q scheduled capacity is currently showing down UP=Underperform, NR=Not Rated

0.6% y/y vs. 1Q's +4% (actual 1Q flown capacity growth closer to 2%). We saw

20-40bps trims across 3Q schedules (APAC mostly) this week with the quarter

pointing to 3.7% growth. NB capacity is set to grow 1%/5% in 2Q/3Q while WB

capacity growth is -3%/2%.

Actual Flown Capacity (Total & by Route) Myles Walton, PhD, CFA

May flown capacity (as of 5/17) is -2.4% (-20bps w/w) which compares to -3.0% mwalton@wolferesearch.com

in April. ME routes continue to lead declines but we see seq improvement from Apr (617) 675-6840 View Myles’s Research

while other regions have slowed and are now seeing y/y declines (APAC Dom, NA View Comp Table