Wake That SaaS Up Daily 5/20/2026

Research evidence excerpt

Wake That SaaS Up Daily 5/20/2026

May 20, 2026

Earnings Preview

Intuit (INTU)

Key Thoughts Heading Into Earnings. INTU is set to report F3Q26 earnings on Wednesday, May 20th, after market

close. Our broader ecosystems checks on INTU suggest that a surprise last minute mix shift to the low end created

some headwinds to what was otherwise a solid upmarket tax season. As a reminder, last quarter INTU delivered a

solid topline beat and a very rare raise (for F2Q) to full year GBSG expectations. Total revs beat by guidance 2.6%,

driven by accelerating GBSG (+18% & +21% ex MC) with the best beat (2.0%) on consensus since F1Q25 on

strong QBOA growth (+24% vs 25% in F1Q), and strength from the mid-market (+40% in QBOA + IES) and online

payments volume surging +29% (bill pay nearly doubling). Consumer platform grew +15%, with TurboTax revenue

growth of +12% and CK grew +23% (off of a very tough comp) driven by personal loans (10pts), credit cards (9pts),

and auto insurance (4pts). Further, management indicated the assisted tax strategy momentum was seeing real

traction with 5.1M unique visitors to landing pages and service centers through early Feb vs. 4.2M for the full prior

season. Our checks also picked up elevated liklihood of headcount rationalization. As a result we would be sitting

on the sidelines into the print. Below, we run through our full financial setup where we expect beats on key metrics

and a raise to the full year outlook, but also see scenario where TurboTax growth comes in slightly below the 10%

mark.

●Looking at the Financial Setup. In our scenario, we see INTU delivering F3Q total revenue of $8.72B (+12.4%

Y/Y), or a 2.1% beat above the midpoint of guidance (vs. 3.0% avg beat in F1H and 2.4% in F3Q25). Below we