EEMEA Chemicals: Fertiliser expert call takeaways

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EEMEA Chemicals: Fertiliser expert call takeaways

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EEMEA Chemicals

Fertiliser expert call takeaways

Industry Overview

Supply tightness likely to persist in urea and phosphate 22 May 2026

We hosted a call with industry expert, CRU to discuss the outlook for nitrogen (urea), Equity

phosphate and potash markets. CRU expects prices for both urea and phosphate to be EEMEA

higher than pre-conflict levels in 2H26. For urea, despite Chinese exports potentially Chemicals

returning from June onwards, CRU believes that healthy Indian demand will prevent Sashank Lanka >>

steep price declines in 2H26. CRU has a more bullish view on phosphate as Saudi’s Research Analyst

exports remain constrained, Chinese export restrictions continue along with high sulphur Merrill+971 4Lynch425 8231(DIFC)

prices. We maintain Buys on our three urea exposed companies: Fertiglobe, SABIC Agri- sashank.lanka@bofa.com

Nutrients and Industries Qatar (IQCD). Matthew DeYoe, CFA

Research Analyst

BofAS

+1 646 855 5746Urea: 5.3mn tonnes of lost volumes since conflict began

matthew.deyoe@bofa.com

Since the conflict began, 2.9mn tonnes of Middle East production has been lost, 1.1mn

Isabella Simonato >>

tonnes of urea stranded in the Strait and 1.4mn tonnes of South Asian production has Research Analyst

been lost (due to lack of feedstock from Middle East). CRU sees demand approaching in Merrill Lynch (Brazil)

+55 11 2188 4243

Asia: 1) India: peak buying to commence in late 2Q/3Q in preparation for Kharif season, isabella.simonato@bofa.com

2) Australia: c.60% of annual urea requirements arrive during Apr-Jul, with 70% from Daryna Kovalska

Middle East, 3) Philippines and Thailand will import 35%/50% of demand during Apr-July. Commodity Strategist MLI (UK)