PKO BP: Strong volumes anchor earnings

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PKO BP: Strong volumes anchor earnings

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PKO BP

Strong volumes anchor earnings

Reiterate Rating: BUY | PO: 114.00 PLN | Price: 99.99 PLN

Earnings supported by volumes and CHF normalization 22 May 2026

We reiterate Buy on PKO and raise our PO to PLN114 (from PLN99), driven by resilient Equity

core revenue delivery and lower cost and provisioning assumptions. Strong loan growth

should remain the key earnings driver, anchoring revenue resilience and offsetting NIM

Key Changespressure, while fees provide a steady contribution. Cost growth remains contained and

asset quality benign. Declining CHF provisions should support EPS and DPS growth in (PLN) Previous Current

2026 despite the high tax burden. We forecast ROE of c18% in 2026E, rising above 20% Price Obj. 99.00 114.00

over the medium term, alongside an attractive 6–9% dividend yield. See pages 3 – 4 for 2026E EPS 8.48 8.68

explanation of estimate and PO changes. 2027E EPS 10.23 10.97

2028E EPS NA 12.54

2026E DPS 6.25 6.24Volumes anchor revenues; margin drag to fade

Underlying trends were strong in 1Q26, with double‑digit volume growth supporting

revenues, while fee income remained robust. Volumes should remain the key near‑term David Taranto >>

Research Analyst

driver. While lower rates continue to weigh on margins YoY, incremental pressure should MLI (UK)

gradually ease through the year, with fees providing further support. We see NII broadly +44 20 7996 7510 david.taranto@bofa.com

flat this year, with growth resuming in 2027 and lifting revenue growth towards c7%.

Benign risk and CHF normalisation support earnings

Cost dynamics are cleaner than headline suggests: the YoY increase is largely driven by Stock Data