GLOBAL RESEARCH ARCHIVE
1Q26 Earnings & Investor Dinner Takeaways: Partnership Brings Vepdegestrant Chapter to a Close. Time to Focus on the Rest of the Pipeline. Increase PT to $18 from $16.
Research evidence excerpt
1Q26 Earnings & Investor Dinner Takeaways: Partnership Brings Vepdegestrant Chapter to a Close. Time to Focus on the Rest of the Pipeline. Increase PT to $18 from $16.
Investment Thesis
We view Arvinas as a pioneer and leader in the field of targeted protein degraders for oncology and other indications. The
company’s lead program, vepdegestrant, is a potent ER degrader being developed for ER+/HER2- breast cancer which we see as
having best-in-class potential among SERDs with partner Pfizer (PFE, Not Rated) providing key commercial leverage. ARV-766 is
an androgen receptor degrader partnered with Novartis (NVS, Not Rated) that has the ability to prevent resistance and extend
durability in prostate cancer relative to AR inhibitors. We see degraders having an advantage over antibodies or silencer therapies
in neuroscience indications, and view the LRRK2 program and other neuroscience programs in development and high-risk/high-
reward opportunities currently not reflected in the stock.BIOTECHNOLOGY
Upcoming Catalysts Price Performance
■ Interim data from Ph 1 study of ARV-393 in B cell lymphoma: 2H26 $15
■ Ph 1b initiation in PSP pts for ARV-102: 2Q26 $14
$13EQUITY ■ KRASG12D degrader clinical data: 2026 $12
$11
$10
$9
$8
Base Case Assumptions: $18 Price Target $7
$6RESEARCH ■ We model VEPPANU US launch in 2026 in 2L+ ER+/HER2- ESR1m BC and EU launch $5
in 2028, with peak penetration of 20% in the US and 10% in the EU. We model an Jun-25 Jul-25 Aug-25 Sep-25 Oct-25 Nov-25 Dec-25 Jan-26 Feb-26 Mar-26 Apr-26 May-26 18% royalty and 50% split with PFE to Arvinas on royalties.
ARVN
■ We model approval of ARV-766 for 3L+ mCRPC with AR ligand binding mutations in S&P 500 (rebased)
the US and EU in 2027 with peak penetration of 30% in the US and 10% in the EU Source: FactSet
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