Semis-on-Fire 22-May-2026: NVDA + AI Channel Checks

Research evidence excerpt

Semis-on-Fire 22-May-2026: NVDA + AI Channel Checks

Technology | Semiconductors and Semiconductor Equipment

May 22, 2026

Mark Lipacis Semis-on-Fire 22-May-2026: NVDA + AI

214-459-4007

Mark.Lipacis@evercoreisi.com Channel Checks

Vedvati Shrotre, CFA In our Semis-on-Fire Weekly, we strive to highlight differentiated

415-800-0187 insights and distill them into a short video format. This week, we

Vedvati.Shrotre@evercoreisi.com highlight key takeaways from our latest AI channel checks and review

Joseph McCormack week 6 of 1Q26 earnings Video link here.

212-446-9448

joseph.mccormack@evercoreisi.com NVDA Apr26Q EPS Summary. NVIDIA delivered AprQ EPS 7% above

Affan Ahmed Street and JulQ EPS guidance 6% above Street, excluding China

212-653-9072 revenue. The company is entering its first real capital return cycle with

Affan.Ahmed@evercoreisi.com the target of returning 50% of its FCF to shareholders, with $80bn of

incremental authorization on top of $39bn. Key rev drivers going

forward include Anthropic inference, Vera CPU at $20bn of CY26

Links to Related Research revenue, and a $200bn CPU TAM versus our $250bn estimate. We

think the parallels between AAPL and NVDA are striking, w both seeing

P/E compression for 5 yrs as they entered secular growth

periods. AAPL’s P/E expanded once it entered a material Capital return

cycle - we think NVDA's will as well.

AI Checks Pt 1: CPU Renaissance Evolution: CPU:GPU ratios

moving from 1:4–1:8 historically to 1:2 recently and potentially above

1:2. A larger CPU role in AI workloads supports a 2030 CPU TAM of

$275bn and underpins our ARM and INTC OP ratings.

AI Checks Pt 2: GPUs vs ASICs. Inference is becoming the main AI

workload, with mix shifting from 15%-50% today to 50%-80% long term,