Value, Marketing & Improved Execution Working to Keep Turnaround on Track

Research evidence excerpt

Value, Marketing & Improved Execution Working to Keep Turnaround on Track

USA | Restaurants

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers EquityMayResearch19, 2026

ESTIMATE CHANGEValue, Marketing & Improved Execution Working

RATING BUYto Keep Turnaround on Track

PRICE $3.85^

Solid progress across all fronts in 1Q despite choppy weather in Jan/Feb, and

momentum continued into 2Q-to-date; we model slightly pos. SSS in 2Q and PRICE TARGET | % TO PT $7.00 | +82%

improving from there through 4Q, supported by value, marketing, and other 52W HIGH-LOW $7.89 - $2.46

drivers. RLM/EBITDA also beat expectations, with FY26 guide intact under new FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 73.1% | 1.32

CFO Mark Graff, and we maintain our EBITDA ests of $70m/$80m excl. SBC in MARKET CAP $78.9M

'26/27. Still early in the recovery plan, but risk/reward attractive; Buy. TICKER RRGB ^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise

noted.

SSS recovery on track, we expect slightly positive comp in 2Q. 1Q sales $378m and SSS -0.6%

came in better than expected (vs Cons $362m and -2.6%), with traffic -1.6% continuing to close

FY (Dec) CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

the gap vs peers (Black Box Casual -1.0% avg) and check up +1% with 3% price offsetting negative

2026 2027 2026 2027

mix driven by the Big YUMMM value platform (6 meal options ranging from $9.99-$16.99), which

is mixing at 13-14% of sales & helping to drive traffic. Other end of the barbell also helped to offset EBITDA NM NA -7% -3%

w/ respect to mix, ex: the new sliders launched in April. 2Q-to-date SSS similar to the March/April EPS NA -50% -28% +67%

periods (Jan/Feb impacted by storms), thus we think slightly positive SSS in 2Q is achievable,

followed by a continued ramp in the 2H as targeted marketing efforts (and spend up y/y), improved 2026 ($) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY