Positive Intra-Quarter Brokerage Update Reinforces Bull Case; 2Q Tracking Above

Research evidence excerpt

Positive Intra-Quarter Brokerage Update Reinforces Bull Case; 2Q Tracking Above

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Consensus Source: FactSet

step-up from the 12% decline in 1Q and more than 200bps of outperformance relative to the Cass

Freight Index (down >4% YoY). The underlying drivers remain (1) strong pipeline conversion, (2)

continued share gains in spot and project freight, and (3) increasing relevance with large enterprise

shippers amid tighter capacity conditions.

Upside to 2Q Midpoint, Tracking Toward the High End: Recall, RXO guided to 2Q EBITDA of $27–

37mm, with the midpoint assuming normalized seasonality, including GP/load compression from

April into May. The high end assumed a more constructive pricing and mix backdrop. Against that

framework, the update of flat sequential GP/load in May represents a clear upside to the midpoint

assumptions. Given that April GP/load was already running ~10% above the 1Q average and that

mix continues to shift toward higher-margin spot freight, the update suggests the business is

increasingly tracking toward the high end of the 2Q range, if not above, assuming trends hold

through the remainder of the qtr.

Still Very Early Innings of a Structural Upcycle: We continue to view recent results and today’s

update as confirmation of a broader earnings inflection story. While near-term EBITDA is inflecting

sharply, current levels remain well below normalized or mid-cycle potential. As outlined in our prior

work, the model supports a path to materially higher EBITDA under more normalized GP/load

assumptions, given the significantly larger load base and strong operating leverage embedded

in the platform. In our view, the current environment remains early cycle, with tightening driven

primarily by supply, suggesting further upside as demand eventually recovers.