Mar-26 Review: Beat; Valuation Favourable

Research evidence excerpt

Mar-26 Review: Beat; Valuation Favourable

pacities at Panipat, Exhibit 1 - IOCL 1-yr fwd P/B band chart

IOCL 1-yr fwd P/B (x)Koyali and Barauni that will commission by Dec-26. Ramp up will be gradual with company 2.52.0

assuming for 100% utilization in Year 3. This will help reduce external product purchases. 1.5

Marketing below, margins in the red currently: 4Q marketing profitability was 7% below JEFe. 1.00.5

4QFY26 marketing volumes (excluding exports) rose 6% y/y vis-à-vis 3% growth in India's 0.0

domestic volumes, implying a market share gain of 130bps for IOCL. OMCs are currently Apr-16 Jan-17 Oct-17 Aug-18 May-19 Feb-20 Nov-20 Sep-21 Jun-22 Apr-23 Jan-24 Oct-24 Jul-25 May-26

making a loss of Rs 14/lt on petrol and Rs 16/lt on diesel based on 15-day average pricing . 1-yr fwd PB Avg +1 SD -1 SD

Source: Bloomberg, Jefferies

vs profit of Rs 3/lt on petrol and loss of Rs 2/lt on diesel in 4Q. OMCs have raised retail fuel

prices by 4% since mid-May.

LPG compensation update: The total LPG loss (net of LPG compensation received TD) is at

Rs 231bn as of Mar-26. IOCL has received Rs 36bn LPG compensation over Nov '25-Mar '26

and will receive the balance (total receivable Rs 145bn) monthly until Oct-26. This will directly

flow to the PBT.

Ambitious renewable plans: Company has previously guided for a 30GW renewable

generation capacity by 2030 that would need ~US$ 16bn by our estimate. Given challenges

with land availability, provisioning on the grid, and fluctuating input prices, IRRs in this segment

will be key to monitor.

Cut estimates, maintain Buy: We cut our FY27E PAT by 54% factoring in marketing losses

and INR closer to spot, with likely more hikes needed in retail fuel prices (timeline and quantum

unknown). Valuations are favourable at 1 SD below mean.