OA Paper Statistics: Japan +2% YoY in Mar; Downtrend Continues in US

Research evidence excerpt

OA Paper Statistics: Japan +2% YoY in Mar; Downtrend Continues in US

Precision Equipment

Equity Research

May 19, 2026

Chart 3 - MFP companies Non hardware sales YoY trends ex forex

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

-5%

-10%

-15%

-20%

Canon MFP Ricoh MFP Fuji film MFP KM Office Canon MJ Average (5 companies)

.

Source: Jefferies, company data

Hardware business

IDC data reported a 7% YoY decline in A3 MFP shipment volume (74% vs. 2019) in Oct-Dec 2025.

Hardware shipments weakened in 2020 due to the COVID-19 impact, and customers postponed

replacement demand (renewals at completion of leasing contracts). While replacement demand

should have recovered in 2021, part shortages caused a decline in sales volume. Sales volume

linked to replacement demand, which had previously been postponed, rose in the latter half of 2022.

The positive trend (YoY) continued in Jan-Jun 2023, but conditions switched to a downturn from

Jul-Sep, and this YoY weakness continued in 2024. The negative trend continued in 2025 with a

5% YoY decline (73% vs 2019), including macroeconomic recession concerns and tariff impact.

In 2026, we believe there is a possibility that the year-on-year renewal demand will remain flat or

slightly negative due to the demand for renewals, which has lagged behind the previous year, but

on the other hand, there are concerns about the impact of the situation in the Middle East, high

global costs, and the impact of inflation.

In the medium term, we expect that the negative trend will continue in the early ~ mid-single digits.

The Trump administration tariffs were set at 15% for Japan and at a range of 19-25% for Southeast

Asian countries. While Japanese printing companies mainly had production sites in China in