X-Marks the Spot: Initiate Hold on New Nuclear Leader with Amazon Support

Research evidence excerpt

X-Marks the Spot: Initiate Hold on New Nuclear Leader with Amazon Support

X Energy (XE)

Equity Research

May 19, 2026

Executive Summary: How We Think About Shares From Here

At a ~$11Bn (~$13Bn fully diluted) market capitalization, X-Energy is one of the larger clean energy IPOs

with investors ascribing material value to the early stage company. This is appropriate due to the customer

visibility that should provide confidence on the ability to drive the cost-curve lower (benefits shared with

Amazon) and support new demand. We see this as the single best visibility next generation nuclear company

in the market. New nuclear is uniquely promising with tangible datapoints poised to hit the market in

2026. The administration is likely to continue to pursue real tangible support for a variety of technologies

through the course of this year, with further legislative reform to help backstop project risk an emerging

potential. We see AMZN as a unique opportunity off which to backstop the technology and expect further

site announcements across its existing slate of nuclear plant relationships to help cement its progress as

a leading 4th generation small modular reactor (SMR). While the timeline for new nuclear is admittedly

protracted, the Iran conflict during the IPO process places additional value on energy security globally. This

is no longer principally a domestic play. We are more confident in the UK Centrica arrangement following

the conflict which prioritizes energy security and has driven international natural gas prices higher. Natural

gas prices are a key driver in wholesale power prices, thus nuclear is a key beneficiary of the conflict.

We apply a blended discounted cash flow methodology based upon customer visibility which can support