JefData for April positive for near-term, but Macro could be unfavorable in H2

Research evidence excerpt

JefData for April positive for near-term, but Macro could be unfavorable in H2

s have improved in early 2026: As of Apr-end, the aggregate

app downloads decreased by 3% y/y (Apr'25: -9%), whereas the monthly DAU was down 10% Figure150 1 - European Freight Rates

(Apr'25: +14%). 140 140.1

130 132.2

Earnings Outlook: For 2026, we expect 10% organic revenue growth to €363m, in-line with VA 120

cons, and at low-end of guidance range, mainly due to macro uncertainty and product transition 110100

risks. On Cash EBITDA, we are at €111m/30.6% at mid-point of guidance range (€105-115m), 90 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

a touch below VA cons, mostly on higher costs as EWG invests into the expected sales cycle . 21 21 21 21 22 22 22 22 23Contract23 23 23 Spot24 24 24 24 25 25 25 25 26

uptick from EW Offices from 2027 onwards. Source: IRU, Jefferies. Note: Indexed at Q1'17.

Valuation (Buy; PT = 132p): We tweak estimates as we have digested the 2025 annual report. Figure 2 - Diesel price vs. Eurowag's net

payments solution growth

Eurowag is currently trading on 15x 12m forward P/E vs. a long-term average of 14x, while on +50%

EV/EBITDA it trades on 8x and 8x, respectively. +40%+30%

+20%

Next Catalyst: Eurowag is due to release H1'26 results on 9 September. +10%0%

(10%)

(20%)

(30%)

21 21 21 21 22 22 22 22 23 23 23 23 24 24 24 24 25 25 25 25 26 26E

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

Diesel price (EUR/l) Net payments growth, organic (%)

.

Source: Bloomberg, Company data, Jefferies estimates, Note:

Average calculated using EW's 2023 energy cost split by

region.

Figure 3 - Eurowag Office App Downloads

Monthly Trends

FY (Dec) 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E 4

Rev. (MM) 330.1 363.3 399.7 439.0 3

Hannes2 Leitner * | Equity Analyst