NDR Takeaways: Exports Dip, Domestic Holds, NEV Inflecting

Research evidence excerpt

NDR Takeaways: Exports Dip, Domestic Holds, NEV Inflecting

ected at 15-16k units, broadly flat or

slightly lower vs. 1Q. A recovery in oil supply and easing geopolitical tensions could drive

a rebound in demand. The 2026 export target remains at 170-180k units, with upside if

conditions improve, while downside risk points to volumes stabilizing at c.15k units per

month.

Africa accounted for 45-46% of exports in 1Q26, while Southeast Asia rose to ~30% (vs.•

26-27% in 2025). The Middle East was flat YoY, while other regions (ex-Russia) remained

resilient, led by Vietnam, Tanzania, and Nigeria.

Europe remains at an early stage under a CKD + local assembly model. Diesel•

homologation has been completed, with NEV certification expected in 2026, and volumes

set to ramp from low hundreds to 1-2k units over the next 2-3 years. Low NEV penetration

(~2-3%) and high local pricing (RMB2-3mn) support Sinotruk’s pricing and product

advantages, with NEV HDTs priced at RMB1mn+, broadly in line with local ICE models.

In Southeast Asia, fuel shortages have increased customer interest in NEV HDTs. While•

near-term ramp-up remains gradual, improving energy security awareness is expected to

support LT demand.

Profitability outlook.

Price competition in traditional diesel and LNG HDTs has stabilized since 2H25, with per-•

unit profitability remaining at only a few thousand RMB.

NEV HDTs are showing rapid loss compression—net loss per car narrowed from•

>RMB10k in early 2025 to RMB6-7k in 4Q25, RMB4k in 1Q26, and further to RMB2-3k by

April. This is largely driven by battery cost optimization, incl a shift toward CALB and lower

reliance on CATL. Mgmt targets monthly breakeven by mid-2026 and full-year breakeven,

underpinned by >40k NEV volumes (c.35% penetration, >15% share).