Oil markets Shock absorbers: China pullback, US export surge

Research evidence excerpt

Oil markets Shock absorbers: China pullback, US export surge

21 May 2026

Oil markets EquitiesGlobal & Commodities

Shock absorbers: China pullback, US export surge

◆ Subdued oil market reflects rebalancing: weaker China Kim Fustier*

buying, record US exports and rapid inventory draws Senior Global Oil & Gas Analyst HSBC Bank plc

kim.fustier@hsbc.com

◆ China crude imports down 3mbd, US net exports up 3mbd vs +44 20 3359 2136

Jan-Feb help to ease tightness in the physical market Sadnan Ali*, CFA

Global Oil & Gas Analyst

HSBC Bank plc

◆ US inventories are falling fast and could reach the bottom of sadnan.ali@hsbc.com

the 5-year range by late June or July +44 207 9910569

Ildar Khaziev*, CFA

Senior EM Oil & Gas and Utilities Analyst

Oil prices have remained relatively contained despite the scale of the Middle East HSBC Bank plc

disruption, reflecting a fragile rebalancing rather than an absence of stress. The ildar.khaziev@hsbc.com

+44 20 7992 3302

adjustment has come through three channels: a sharp pullback in Chinese buying, a

Evan Li*

surge in Atlantic Basin exports led by the US, and an unusually rapid draw on Head, Asia Energy Transition Research

inventories and strategic stocks. This has eased immediate availability concerns and The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited

evan.m.h.li@hsbc.com.hk

narrowed some of the extreme physical dislocations seen earlier in the crisis. +852 2996 6619

China has been a key swing factor on the demand side. Crude imports fell by more Lilyanna Yang, CFA

Analyst, LatAm Oil & Gas, Utilities, Petrochems

than 3mbd in April (vs Jan-Feb), and should further decline in May, helping to free up HSBC Securities (USA) Inc.

seaborne supplies and cap prices. The scale of China’s import decline looks difficult lilyanna.yang@us.hsbc.com