UK PMIs (May, flash) Continuing a week of dovish UK data

Research evidence excerpt

UK PMIs (May, flash) Continuing a week of dovish UK data

21 May 2026

UK PMIs (May, flash) Economics

Continuing a week of dovish UK data United Kingdom

◆ The composite UK PMI fell to 48.5, its lowest reading (and the first time below Simon Wells

50) since April last year ChiefHSBCEuropeanBank plc Economist

simon.wells@hsbcib.com

◆ The fall was driven by services, where uncertainty and delayed spending +44 20 7991 6718

decisions are starting to bite

◆ Prices continue to rise rapidly, though the pace of increase moderated slightly

Facts

◆ The flash composite UK PMI fell from a resilient 52.6 in April to 48.5 in the May flash (well below

consensus of 51.6, Chart 1). This was the lowest reading since April last year, which was also the

last time it was below 50 (and so signalling contraction).

◆ The drop was driven by the service sector, where activity fell sharply from 52.7 to 47.9 (consensus:

51.7). This was a 64-month low and, apart from Covid-19 times, was the lowest since 2016 -

immediately after the Brexit referendum. Survey respondents cited high uncertainty and “delayed

consumer spending decisions (especially for international travel)”.

◆ Manufacturing was more resilient, with the headline PMI unchanged at 53.7 (beating consensus of

53.0). S&P Global said that continued front-loading ahead of potential price rises and supply

disruptions was partly responsible for the relatively good reading.

◆ The composite employment index fell slightly (by 0.3 to 47.4) and continued to signal headcount

reduction (Chart 2).

◆ Input and output prices were both still rising at a sharp pace (Chart 3). But, with the exception of

manufacturing output prices, the pace of increase moderated slightly from April.

◆ There was also a fall in service sector business expectations.