Surprise Indices US and UK Activity Surprise index moved higher

Research evidence excerpt

Surprise Indices US and UK Activity Surprise index moved higher

Surprise Indices Multi-AssetGlobal 

US and UK Activity Surprise index moved higher

Big surprises since previous edition: Mark McDonald

Head of AI and Data Science

◆ US Leading Index 3.3 s.d. worse than expected HSBC Bank plc

mark.mcdonald@hsbcib.com

+44 20 7991 3119

◆ UK Markit/CIPS Construction PMI 2.2 s.d. worse than expected

Paul Mackel

Global Head of FX Research

◆ China Fixed Assets Investment 3.5 s.d. worse than expected The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation

Limited

paulmackel@hsbc.com

The US Activity Surprise index moved higher in recent weeks, as Five out of 18 of our activity surprise indices are trending upwards, +852 2288 5523

stronger-than-expected data releases such as Wholesale inventories seven show no clear direction, and six are trending downwards. Vanchit Gupta

and Factory Orders more than offset the negative surprises such as On the inflation front, four of our 11 surprise indices are trending Associate Bangalore

Leading Index and Chicago Purchasing Manager. The US Inflation upwards, four show no direction, and three are trending downwards.

Surprise Index moved broadly sideways in recent weeks with notable Issuer of report:

Many of these indices are available on Bloomberg. To see this

surprises in Import Price Index and CPI Ex Food & Energy. HSBC Bank plc

data on Bloomberg type: ALLX HSES<GO>

Our Eurozone Activity Surprise Index moved lower in recent weeks, 21 May 2026

How to read the Surprise Index chartswith negative surprises in Spain PMI Services and Eurozone Economic

Confidence. The Eurozone Inflation Surprise Index also moved Our indices are designed so that it is the direction in which the index is

sideways, with notable surprises in Eurozone PPI and France CPI.